Market Outlook – Nov’23
Market resumed uptrend this festival month after swift small correction in 2nd half of oct’23
The markets in the month of October showed volatility with swift corrections especially in 2nd half because of heavy FII selling and on back of global markets. Market took support and resumed rally on back of DII buying in this first week of November. The Fed kept the rate unchanged in the last week meeting, the global market rallied swiftly followed by the Indian market. The earning season has overall been good so far, GST and advance tax collections also look promising. As we are heading into festive season this month, market may consolidate with uptrend though difficult to cross 20k on nifty. Ongoing Global conflicts are still cause of concern.
Outlook for the Indian Market
Markets are stable, consolidating and have rallied in November so far. There has been broader participation in the rally across large cap, mid cap and small cap. Further, the sectoral rally may be dominated by banks, FMCG, autos etc in the festive season with companies boosting revenues through attractive offers & discounts. The festival cheer is amplified by the Indian team strong consistent performance in cricket world cup with a high chance of India lifting the coveted trophy 3rd time. SIP inflows continue in the Indian market and the primary market is also buzzing with IPOs.
Fundamental outlook: The market may continue uptrend this month on back of various factors as explained already. However there are 5 states election scheduled this month and the result of which will be announced on 3rd dec’23. The survey is showing close fight between the ruling parties and opposition in most states. The exit polls may also have impact on the market and hence not expecting any bigger rally as of now. The actual results will affect the market and can cause volatility along with other global geo political events. Investors & Traders should track all these developments, may continue the SIPs and utilize correction to invest more in the market.
Technical outlook: Indian market is sideways to mildly positive on basis of technicals. Nifty is currently trading below short term moving average of 20 & 50 but expected to cross above it in next few days. The RSI range is 50 to 55 which indicates uptrend. The immediate target for nifty is 19600 and may face stiff resistance at 20k level. The immediate support for nifty is seen at 19k and major support at 18500.
